2019 U.S. Open odds, picks: Tiger Woods projection from computer model that nailed the PGA Championship

4 weeks ago

With the buzz around the 2019 U.S. Open ramping up, the third major of the year figures to be competitive from start to finish when it tees off on Thursday, June 13, from Pebble Beach Golf Links. After capturing his 15th career major title at the Masters in April, three-time U.S. Open winner Tiger Woods will look to bounce back after missing the cut at the PGA Championship. Woods’ last U.S. Open victory came in 2008 at Torrey Pines, but he’ll enter the 2019 U.S. Open as one of the top Vegas favorites at 14-1 according to the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds. However, the competition will be stiff this year at Pebble Beach with the likes of Rory McIlroy (16-1), Dustin Johnson (7-1) and defending champion Brooks Koepka (6-1) all expected to be in contention for the title. With a star-studded field playing at one of golf’s most iconic venues, you’ll definitely want to see the latest PGA Tour predictions from the team at SportsLine before locking in any 2019 U.S. Open picks of your own.

SportsLine’s prediction model, built by DFS pro Mike McClure, has nailed five majors entering the weekend, including Koepka’s historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship. It also called Tiger Woods’ deep run in last year’s PGA Championship despite being a 25-1 long shot. The model has been spot-on in the 2018-19 season as well. It was high on champion Rory McIlroy at the Players Championship, projecting him as one of the top two contenders from the start. It also correctly predicted Koepka’s (9-1) victory at the CJ Cup earlier this season. Additionally, it correctly called Bryson DeChambeau’s (9-1) seven-shot victory at the Omega Dubai Desert Classic. Anyone who has followed the model is way up.

Now with the 2019 U.S. Open field taking shape, SportsLine simulated the event 10,000 times and the results were surprising. One huge shocker the model is calling for: Woods, a three-time champion, reigning Masters champ, and one of the top Vegas favorites, barely cracks the top 10. 

Woods won his 15th major championship earlier this year at Masters. It was his first major title since the 2008 U.S. Open and the first time in his career that he came from behind to win a major. Woods can tie Sam Snead with 82 career PGA Tour victories with a win at Pebble Beach, the site of his historically dominant 15-stroke victory in 2000. He opened that major with a 6-under 65, the lowest score ever recorded during a U.S. Open at Pebble Beach.

However, Woods struggled mightily at the PGA Championship, his first start since his Masters victory, missing the cut after shooting back-to-back rounds over par. SportsLine’s model doesn’t believe he’ll earn his 16th career major championship at Pebble Beach and sees far better values in this loaded U.S. Open 2019 field.

Another surprise: Justin Thomas, a 20-1 long shot, makes a strong run at the title. He has a better chance to win it all than his odds imply, so he’s a target for anyone looking for a huge payday.

Thomas is no stranger to having success at major tournaments. In fact, he’s finished inside the top 12 in four major starts since 2017, which includes a victory 2017 PGA Championship. His odds going into the 2019 U.S. Open are a bit longer after missing over a month due to a wrist injury, but don’t let his short hiatus deter you at Pebble Beach.

His 2018-19 PGA Tour campaign has included five top-10 finishes, which can be directly attributed to his consistent play across multiple categories. He enters the month of June hitting well over 70 percent of greens in regulations (73.06), which leaves him with more makable birdie opportunities. That’s proven fruitful throughout the season as he ranks first on tour in birdie average (4.90) and fourth in scoring average (69.512), giving him the tools he needs to climb the 2019 U.S. Open leaderboard in a hurry. 

Also, the model says four other golfers with 2019 U.S. Open odds of 20-1 or longer make a strong run at the title. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who will win the 2019 U.S. Open, and which long shots stun the golfing world? Check out the latest 2019 U.S. Open odds below and visit SportsLine now to see the 2019 U.S. Open projected leaderboard from the model that nailed the winners of five golf majors.

Brooks Koepka 6-1
Dustin Johnson 7-1
Tiger Woods 14-1
Rory McIlroy 16-1   
Justin Rose 16-1 
Jordan Spieth 18-1
Justin Thomas 20-1
Rickie Fowler 20-1   
Jon Rahm 20-1
Jason Day 25-1
Xander Schauffele 25-1 
Tommy Fleetwood 25-1   
Francesco Molinari 25-1
Bryson DeChambeau 30-1   
Patrick Cantlay 30-1
Phil Mickelson 30-1
Tony Finau 30-1
Hideki Matsuyama 30-1
Adam Scott 40-1   
Matt Kuchar 50-1
Paul Casey 50-1
Patrick Reed 50-1
Sergio Garcia 60-1
Henrik Stenson 60-1
Louis Oosthuizen 60-1
Webb Simpson 60-1
Matt Wallace 60-1

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