Alternative Premier League table after 24 games, based on expected goals

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This is how stats experts think the Premier League table SHOULD look with almost two-thirds of the season gone

If you thought the title race was about to be done and dusted on Tuesday night, think again.

A stunning set of results have left the Premier League wide open at both ends of the table with Liverpool and Manchester City just five points apart at the top, and Tottenham lurking behind them.

Tottenham Hotspur stars celebrate Fernando Llorente’s winner against Watford.

Tottenham Hotspur stars celebrate Fernando Llorente’s winner against Watford.

Bournemouth’s victory saw a change in fourth with Arsenal leapfrogging Chelsea on goals scored, while at the bottom Fulham remain 19th despite a stunning 4-2 comeback win over Brighton & Hove Albion.

And Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s incredible winning start at Manchester United was ended by a 2-2 draw with Burnley.

Here at talkSPORT.com we’re always keeping an eye on Understat.com to see how players and clubs are performing based on their xG stats.

Find out how the stats believe the Premier League SHOULD be shaping up below…

What is expected goals?

  • Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
  • Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
  • The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
  • The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.


20. Huddersfield Town – Real position = 20 

Real points = 11 | Expected points = 19.70

19. Newcastle United – Real position = 14

Real points = 24 | Expected points = 22.10

Salomon Rondon celebrates netting the equaliser for Newcastle

Salomon Rondon celebrates netting the equaliser for Newcastle

18. Cardiff City – Real position = 18

Real points = 19 | Expected points = 22.89

17. Brighton and Hove Albion – Real position = 13

Real points = 26 | Expected points = 22.96

16. Fulham – Real position = 19

Real points = 17 | Expected points = 23.05

Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic

Fulham striker Aleksandar Mitrovic

15. Burnley – Real position = 17

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 23.06

14. West Ham – Real position = 12

Real points = 31 | Expected points = 27.15

13. Southampton – Real position = 16

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 27.81

Ralph Hasenhuttl has been doing superbly with Southampton

Ralph Hasenhuttl has been doing superbly with Southampton

12. Crystal Palace – Real position = 15

Real points = 23 | Expected points = 29.62

11. Everton – Real position = 8

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 32.22

10. Watford – Real position = 9

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 33.60

9. Bournemouth – Real position = 10

Real points = 33 | Expected points = 33.60

Chelsea were beaten 4-0 by Bournemouth

Chelsea were beaten 4-0 by Bournemouth

8. Leicester City – Real position = 11

Real points = 32 | Expected points = 33.83

7. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Real position = 7

Real points = 35 | Expected points = 38.29

6. Arsenal – Real position = 4

Real points = 47 | Expected points = 38.79

Matteo Guendouzi on the ball for Arsenal

Matteo Guendouzi on the ball for Arsenal

5. Manchester United – Real position = 6

Real points = 45 | Expected points = 39.55

Victor Lindelof turned home Manchester United’s equaliser

Victor Lindelof turned home Manchester United’s equaliser

4. Tottenham Hotspur – Real position = 3

Real points = 54 | Expected points = 42.27

Llorente’s late header changed the mood at Tottenham against Watford

Llorente’s late header changed the mood at Tottenham against Watford

3. Chelsea – Real position = 5

Real points = 47 | Expected points = 46.05

2. Liverpool – Real position = 1

Real points = 61 | Expected points = 53.24

Liverpool endured a frustrated evening at a wintry Anfield

Liverpool endured a frustrated evening at a wintry Anfield

1. Manchester City – Real position = 2

Real points = 56 | Expected points = 54.72

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola looked frustrated at St James Park.

Manchester City boss Pep Guardiola looked frustrated at St James Park.

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